← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 27% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Moritz Broschinski · Bochum |
| 22' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Bochum |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 35' | 🟨 | Paul Wanner · Heidenheim |
| 38' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
| 50' | 🟨 | Thomas Keller · Heidenheim |
| 54' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luca Kerber · Heidenheim |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tim Siersleben · Heidenheim |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 🟨 |
| Sirlord Conteh · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 51.00 | 6322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1494.21 | 1571.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.93 | -43.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.24 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.23 |