← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 44% | 37% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 28% | 32% | 3.59 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 41% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 59% | 1.97 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Augsburg |
| 12' | ⚽ | Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marius Wolf · FC Augsburg |
| 32' | ⚽ | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 35' | ⚽ | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 39' | ⚽ | Shuto Machino · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Steve Mounié · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shuto Machino · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 1177.00 | 447.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1490.66 | 1576.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.76 | 2.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -1.08 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.79 |