← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +8% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 28% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 65% | 1.76 | value: +14% |
| Under | 45% | 35% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Phillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Kauã Santos · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 21' | 🟥 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 27' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jean-Mattéo Bahoya · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rasmus Kristensen · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 34 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 17 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 569.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1809.86 | 1755.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.47 | 47.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 46.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 24.71 | 28.07 |
| state index | 0.82 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 2.03 |