← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 55% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.07 | value: +19% |
| Heidenheim win | 21% | 21% | 4.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Heidenheim +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 57% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 43% | 2.49 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 20' | ⚽ | Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart |
| 26' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Heidenheim |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 41' | ⚽ | Paul Wanner · Heidenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 75' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mikkel Kaufmann · Heidenheim |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 89' |
| 🟨 |
| Anthony Rouault · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 6315.00 | 624.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1584.95 | 1776.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.42 | -2.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.44 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 2.86 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 1.01 |
| solidity v1 | -2.91 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.71 |
| state index | -1.17 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.68 |