← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 45% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.45 | value: +4% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 27% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
| Under | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 22' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 68' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maxim Leitsch · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 282.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1720.84 | 1750.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.68 | 42.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.24 | 28.68 |
| state index | 1.08 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.78 |