β Bundesliga 2024-25 Β· Fri, Nov 29, 07:30 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 57% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.84 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 18% | 21% | 5.61 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 β0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Holstein Kiel β0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | π¨ | Shuto Machino Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 23' | π¨ | Lewis Holtby Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 25' | β½ | Manolis Saliakas Β· FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 26' | π¨ | Marko IveziΔ Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 38' | π¨ | Eric Smith Β· FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 38' | π¨ | Timo Becker Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 56' | β½ | Morgan Guilavogui Β· FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 85' | β½ | Johannes Eggestein Β· FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 86' | π¨ | Oladapo Afolayan Β· FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | π¨ | Patrick Erras Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | β |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 90' | β½ | Phil Harres Β· Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 151.00 | 1155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | β |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1574.81 | 1515.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.99 | -24.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | β |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | β |
| league points | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 5.13 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.81 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.80 |