← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 42% | 48% | 2.30 | value: +10% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 29% | 23% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand