← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 72% | 74% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 6.01 | fair |
| Bochum win | 11% | 13% | 8.50 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bochum −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 72% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · Bochum |
| 53' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 71' | 🟨 | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 72' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 78' | ⚽ | Justin Diehl · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| coach days | 602.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1770.68 | 1488.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.64 | -25.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| league points | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 12.92 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.79 | -2.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.71 | — |
| state index | 0.32 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 2.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.49 |