β Bundesliga 2024-25 Β· Sat, Nov 9, 02:30 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 59% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.35 | fair |
| Holstein Kiel win | 18% | 17% | 5.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel β1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SV Werder Bremen β1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | π¨ | Marco Friedl Β· SV Werder Bremen |
| 30' | π¨ | Jens Stage Β· SV Werder Bremen |
| 36' | β½ | Jens Stage Β· SV Werder Bremen |
| 48' | β½ | Phil Harres Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 50' | π¨ | Senne Lynen Β· SV Werder Bremen |
| 68' | π¨ | Marko IveziΔ Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 89' | β½ | Oliver Burke Β· SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | π¨ | Magnus Knudsen Β· Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Weserstadion |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1104.00 | 1135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1703.37 | 1588.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.37 | -6.07 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 46.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 25.51 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.13 |