← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 49% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 25% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 65% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 35% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟥 | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund |
| 32' | 🟨 | Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Robin Zentner · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 2 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days | 282.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1640.59 | 1795.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.37 | -11.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 68.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.85 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 27.27 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 2.03 |