β Bundesliga 2024-25 Β· Sat, Nov 2, 05:30 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 44% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund β0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| RB Leipzig β0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 60% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 40% | 2.79 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | π¨ | Christoph Baumgartner Β· RB Leipzig |
| 21' | π¨ | Maximilian Beier Β· Borussia Dortmund |
| 27' | β½ | Benjamin Ε eΕ‘ko Β· RB Leipzig |
| 30' | β½ | Maximilian Beier Β· Borussia Dortmund |
| 34' | π¨ | Ramy Bensebaini Β· Borussia Dortmund |
| 35' | π¨ | Benjamin Henrichs Β· RB Leipzig |
| 40' | π¨ | Lutsharel Geertruida Β· RB Leipzig |
| 65' | β½ | Serhou Guirassy Β· Borussia Dortmund |
| 81' | π¨ | Kevin Kampl Β· RB Leipzig |
| 90' | π¨ | Ayman Azhil Β· Borussia Dortmund |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 154.00 | 1067.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1785.24 | 1859.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.75 | 21.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.17 | 7.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -0.67 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 25.63 |
| state index | 0.47 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.79 |