← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 39% | 30% | 2.50 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 33% | 42% | 3.00 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Heidenheim +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
| Under | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Tim Siersleben · Heidenheim |
| 28' | ⚽ | Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Heidenheim |
| 35' | 🟨 | Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 59' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | 🟨 | Patrick Mainka · Heidenheim |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
| 84' | 🟨 | Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 1128.00 | 6272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1523.58 | 1648.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.35 | -5.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.96 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.58 |