← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 66% | 69% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +7% |
| Bochum win | 15% | 11% | 6.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 64% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 36% | 3.01 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 18' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ansgar Knauff · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 32' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Brown · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dani de Wit · Bochum |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ivan Ordets · Bochum |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ansgar Knauff · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 51' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Dahoud · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 66' | ⚽ | Can Uzun · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 69' |
| ⚽ |
| Hugo Ekitiké · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 77' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 520.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1719.10 | 1486.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.97 | -31.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.68 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -1.75 | -2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.20 | — |
| state index | 0.64 | -1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 2.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.42 |