← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 83% | 74% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 14% | 9.51 | value: +33% |
| Bochum win | 7% | 12% | 17.88 | value: +117% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +2.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Bayern München +2.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75% | 73% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 27% | 4.50 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Felix Passlack · Bochum |
| 16' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 26' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 57' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 65' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 71' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 26.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.87 |
| elo | 1491.80 | 1879.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.24 | 28.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 2.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 91.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 70.00 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.14 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 18.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 22.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 2.59 |
| solidity v1 | -2.40 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| squad age | — | 29.51 |
| state index | -0.94 | 1.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.61 | 0.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 2.62 |