← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 79% | 78% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.69 | value: +16% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 8% | 7% | 13.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −2 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Holstein Kiel −2 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 71% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel |
| 49' | 🟨 | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 61' | ⚽ | El Bilal Touré · VfB Stuttgart |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟥 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | 🟨 | Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel |
| 80' | 🟨 | Max Geschwill · Holstein Kiel |
| 81' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 🟨 |
| Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 84' | ⚽ | Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | 🟥 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 574.00 | 1121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1775.87 | 1526.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.63 | -23.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.92 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| league points | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | -1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.72 | — |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.16 |