← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 44% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | value: +3% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 27% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 57% | 1.90 | value: +8% |
| Over | 49% | 43% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand