← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 4, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 40% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +7% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 34% | 28% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Augsburg +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.47 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand