← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 47% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 27% | 25% | 3.66 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.82 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 63% | 1.66 | value: +5% |
| Under | 41% | 37% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 24' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 32' | ⚽ | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 63' | 🟥 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 68' | ⚽ | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Koulierakis · Wolfsburg |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Aster Vranckx · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 211.00 | 546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1663.22 | 1866.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.90 | 13.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 1.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 1.70 |
| solidity v1 | -1.59 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 25.31 |
| state index | -0.05 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.28 |