← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 64% | 66% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.84 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 16% | 15% | 6.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Augsburg −1 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 68% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 32% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 15' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicolas Seiwald · RB Leipzig |
| 46' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 57' | ⚽ | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | 🟨 | Frank Onyeka · FC Augsburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Chrislain Matsima · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 1032.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1832.51 | 1560.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.14 | -9.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.63 |
| league points | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.00 | — |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.61 |