← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 27, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 79% | 78% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.66 | value: +6% |
| Bochum win | 8% | 8% | 13.43 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −2 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Bochum −2 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 67% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 33% | 3.75 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 21' | ⚽ | Dani de Wit · Bochum |
| 44' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 58' | 🟨 | Yan Couto · Borussia Dortmund |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund |
| 75' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 81' | ⚽ | Felix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
| coach days | 118.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1807.01 | 1517.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.98 | -34.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 5.13 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -2.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.25 | — |
| state index | 1.06 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.26 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 2.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.10 |