← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 53% | 45% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.94 | value: +9% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 22' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lukas Daschner · Bochum |
| 39' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 48' | 🟨 | Dani de Wit · Bochum |
| 76' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 78' | 🟨 | Felix Passlack · Bochum |
| 89' | ⚽ | Shuto Machino · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 82.00 | 1086.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1586.17 | 1592.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.52 | -20.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 42.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -3.26 | -2.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 26.56 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.93 | 2.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 0.98 |