β Bundesliga 2024-25 Β· Sat, Sep 21, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Petersen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bochum win | 53% | 45% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.94 | value: +9% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bochum β0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Holstein Kiel β0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand