← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 40% | 40% | 2.41 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 32% | 29% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.53 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 30 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 70' | 🟥 | Samuel Essende · FC Augsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Frank Onyeka · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Silvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 355.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1570.32 | 1640.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.06 | 31.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.30 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.76 |