← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 46% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.33 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 24% | 23% | 4.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Augsburg −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.15 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Morgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 22' | 🟨 | Lars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 39' | 🟨 | Samuel Essende · FC Augsburg |
| 47' | ⚽ | Marius Wolf · FC Augsburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · FC Augsburg |
| 74' | ⚽ | Carlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phillip Tietz · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Yusuf Kabadayi · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 350.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1557.15 | 1574.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.61 | -24.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.79 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -2.55 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.48 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.73 |