← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 58% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +4% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 20% | 18% | 4.97 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 64% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 36% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Lasse Riess · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 8' | ⚽ | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 15' | ⚽ | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 36' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 57' | 🟨 | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Silvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 9 |
| 13 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 88' |
| ⚽ |
| Fabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maxim Leitsch · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 518.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1773.12 | 1647.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.10 | 37.10 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.36 | 26.30 |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.69 |