← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 41% | 55% | 2.33 | value: +29% |
| Holstein Kiel win | 32% | 23% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Wolfsburg +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 44% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 27' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 30' | ⚽ | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 35' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kilian Fischer · Wolfsburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 77' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · Wolfsburg |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Geschwill · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1065.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.53 |
| elo | 1566.46 | 1590.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.90 | -3.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | — | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.12 |