← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 43% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.12 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 18' | ⚽ | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
| 24' | ⚽ | Brajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Sepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 78.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1681.12 | 1704.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.60 | 42.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 37.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.71 |