← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 51% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.83 | value: +3% |
| SC Freiburg win | 24% | 24% | 4.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 43% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 57% | 2.17 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |