← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 79% | 70% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 20% | 7.88 | value: +59% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 9% | 10% | 11.65 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −2 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −2 | 46% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 74% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand