← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 46% | 43% | 2.12 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 31% | 36% | 3.32 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 59% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 41% | 2.64 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Eren Dinkçi · Heidenheim |
| 22' | ⚽ | Eren Dinkçi · Heidenheim |
| 30' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 36' | ⚽ | Kevin Sessa · Heidenheim |
| 52' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 64' | ⚽ | Steffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 77' | 🟨 | Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jan-Niklas Beste · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 6104.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1664.90 | 1629.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.26 | -11.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 39.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 26.32 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.71 |