← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 43% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 32% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 33% | 3.90 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| RB Leipzig −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.79 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 46' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 51' | 🟨 | Benjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig |
| 60' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 61' | 🟨 | Robin Koch · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Omar Marmoush · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ansgar Knauff · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Frankfurt Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 352.00 | 899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1729.64 | 1901.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.57 | 14.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| league points | 46.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.91 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 26.54 |
| state index | 0.08 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.61 |