← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 55% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +4% |
| Bochum win | 22% | 23% | 4.65 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟥 | Felix Passlack · Bochum |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 41' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Victor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ivan Ordets · Bochum |
| 76' | ⚽ | Amine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 86' | ⚽ | Josip Stanišić · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 2 | Shots | 28 |
| 0 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days |
| 41.00 |
| 589.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1557.56 | 1933.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.06 | 10.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | — |
| league points | 33.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.17 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 1.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.03 |
| state index | 0.17 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.47 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 2.00 |