← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, May 5, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 48% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Bochum win | 25% | 25% | 4.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 31' | ⚽ | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 37' | ⚽ | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 59' | ⚽ | Yorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 62' | ⚽ | Chris Bedia · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 70' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 74' | ⚽ | Benedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Gamboa · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 186.00 | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1675.91 | 1612.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.50 | -8.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.79 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 29.95 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.66 |