← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 38% | 27% | 2.56 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 38% | 49% | 2.64 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 69% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 31% | 2.78 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Eric Dier · FC Bayern München |
| 24' | 🟨 | Waldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart |
| 29' | ⚽ | Leonidas Stergiou · VfB Stuttgart |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 78' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Pavlovic · FC Bayern München |
| 83' | ⚽ | Woo-Yeong Jeong · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | ⚽ | Silas · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stuttgart Arena |
| 0.00 |
| coach days | 399.00 | 430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1829.73 | 1948.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.20 | -19.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 2.31 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 64.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 2.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | 1.94 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 29.82 |
| state index | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 2.09 |