← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, May 3, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 63% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.35 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| RB Leipzig +1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 71% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 55' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 72' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 72' | 🟥 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 86' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 457.00 | 884.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1665.93 | 1913.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.38 | 34.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 39.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | -2.64 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 25.83 |
| state index | 0.07 | 1.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 2.16 |