← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 61% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.34 | value: +8% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 17% | 14% | 5.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| 1. FC Köln −1 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Faride Alidou · 1. FC Köln |
| 29' | ⚽ | Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mark Uth · 1. FC Köln |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Benno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Brajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Phillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| 90' |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 87.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1680.77 | 1615.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.05 | -25.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 27.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 25.82 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.11 |