← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.87 | value: +17% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 19% | 16% | 5.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 62% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 38% | 3.20 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 23' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 46' | ⚽ | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund |
| 80' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Leipzig Stadium |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 878.00 | 666.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1897.64 | 1918.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.00 | 18.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| league points | 59.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 27.36 |
| state index | 1.75 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 1.49 |