← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 42% | 45% | 2.35 | value: +5% |
| Wolfsburg win | 31% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| SC Freiburg −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Sebastiaan Bornauw · SC Freiburg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 64' | 🟥 | Kiliann Sildillia · SC Freiburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| coach days | 4531.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1738.58 | 1663.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.11 | -17.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.45 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.22 |