← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 66% | 69% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.38 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 15% | 12% | 6.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Bayern München −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −1.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 68% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Fußball Arena München |