← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 45% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +5% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 31% | 26% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 67% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 33' | 🟨 | Umut Tohumcu · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 34' | ⚽ | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 45' | ⚽ | Felix Passlack · Bochum |
| 64' | ⚽ | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 73' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 84' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 35 | Shots | 12 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 25.00 | 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1601.85 | 1676.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.79 | -10.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -2.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.29 | 27.43 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 2.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.22 |