← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 56% | 61% | 1.77 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 22% | 16% | 4.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 41% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 49' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 53' | 🟨 | Angelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart |
| 68' | 🟨 | Michael Zetterer · SV Werder Bremen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 74' | 🟨 | Felix Agu · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 902.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1641.09 | 1837.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.63 | 42.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 1.59 |
| solidity v1 | -1.71 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 25.93 |
| state index | -0.69 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 2.09 |