← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 49% | 51% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Bochum win | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.95 | value: +10% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Patrick Osterhage · Bochum |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Aster Vranckx · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 50.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1656.81 | 1608.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.00 | -33.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 29.27 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.11 |