← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 76% | 70% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.50 | value: +11% |
| Wolfsburg win | 9% | 12% | 11.12 | value: +39% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Wolfsburg −1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 36% | 3.13 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · RB Leipzig |
| 25' | 🟨 | Kevin Behrens · Wolfsburg |
| 25' | 🟨 | Kilian Fischer · Wolfsburg |
| 27' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig |
| 35' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 82' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Leipzig Stadium |
| coach days |
| 864.00 |
| 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1816.15 | 1592.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.85 | -31.03 |
| eye test v1 | 1.78 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| league points | 53.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.95 | 0.00 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 26.48 |
| state index | 1.60 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.17 |