← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 68% | 69% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 14% | 12% | 7.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Darmstadt −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.45 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alexander Brunst · Darmstadt |
| 32' | ⚽ | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 39' | 🟨 | Thomas Isherwood · Darmstadt |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 60' | ⚽ | Brajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Brajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days |
| 65.00 |
| 1010.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1581.20 | 1473.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.08 | -18.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 42.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -1.01 |
| solidity v1 | -2.17 | -2.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | 0.03 | -1.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.38 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.83 |