← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 61% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.65 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 18% | 16% | 5.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Freiburg +1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 41% | 2.79 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 18' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 44' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 54' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 59' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig |
| 68' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 73' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 75' | 🟨 | Benjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig |
| 79' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 4510.00 | 857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1750.70 | 1872.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.65 | 11.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 36.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 1.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 28.23 | 26.73 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 2.47 |