← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 42% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| Bochum win | 31% | 44% | 3.27 | value: +43% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 35' | 🟨 | Moritz Broschinski · Bochum |
| 37' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln |
| 53' | ⚽ | Felix Passlack · Bochum |
| 68' | 🟨 | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 90' | ⚽ | Steffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Cologne Stadium |
| coach days | 96.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1633.41 | 1616.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.74 | -50.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| league points | 19.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -1.69 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 29.64 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.55 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.24 |