← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 65% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.76 | value: +11% |
| Darmstadt win | 15% | 14% | 6.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bochum −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 39% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 29' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 48' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 53' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 53' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Darmstadt |
| 62' | ⚽ | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 76' | ⚽ | Oscar Vilhelmsson · Darmstadt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 577.00 | 1004.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1621.17 | 1524.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.38 | -26.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 42.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 15.13 | 15.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -2.29 | -2.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.50 | 28.08 |
| state index | -0.38 | -1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.61 | 2.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.97 |