← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 74% | 76% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.38 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 10% | 8% | 9.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Heidenheim −1.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 53' | ⚽ | Angelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Alexander Nübel · Heidenheim |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 85' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Waldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stuttgart Arena |
| coach days |
| 365.00 |
| 6056.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1748.92 | 1582.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.82 | -19.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 56.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 14.92 | 15.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | -0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.08 | — |
| state index | 1.30 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 0.79 |