← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 37% | 40% | 2.71 | value: +8% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 36% | 32% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Wolfsburg +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Felix Agu · SV Werder Bremen |
| 43' | 🟥 | Anthony Jung · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Skelly Alvero · SV Werder Bremen |
| 76' | 🟥 | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Isak Hansen Aarøen |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 880.00 |
| 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1591.40 | 1593.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.38 | -23.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.48 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.04 |