← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 71% | 65% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 21% | 5.69 | value: +21% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| RB Leipzig −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 52% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 48% | 3.11 | value: +48% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 27' | 🟨 | Phillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Castello Lukeba · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | 🟨 | Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Leipzig Stadium |
| coach days |
| 850.00 |
| 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1808.59 | 1574.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.97 | 14.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.49 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 49.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 27.13 |
| state index | 1.38 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 1.54 |