← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 63% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.62 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 16% | 15% | 6.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SC Freiburg +1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 43% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 10' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Adam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Yannik Keitel · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 4490.00 | 533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1737.47 | 1969.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.93 | 6.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 33.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 71.60 |
| rest days | 2.86 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 2.24 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 2.08 |